Extend economic uprating parameters to 2100 using SSA Trustees data

policyengine_us/parameters/calibration/gov/census/populations/total.yaml

@@ -2,12 +2,12 @@ description: Total US population.
 metadata:
   unit: person
   reference:
-  # Data underlying figures spreadsheet > Figure 2 tab.
-  # Published 2024-01-18.
+  # Historical data (2015-2024) from CBO
   - title: "CBO: The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054"
     href: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59697
-  - title: "CBO: The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2054"
-    href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/60875-Data.xlsx 
+  # Projections (2025-2100) from SSA Trustees Report 2024
+  - title: "SSA Trustees Report 2024: Population Projections"
+    href: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/
 values:
   2015-01-01: 326_078_000
   2016-01-01: 328_964_000
@@ -19,34 +19,82 @@ values:
   2022-01-01: 339_654_000
   2023-01-01: 342_835_000
   2024-01-01: 346_588_000
-  2025-01-01: 349_806_000
-  2026-01-01: 352_304_000
-  2027-01-01: 354_301_000
-  2028-01-01: 355_941_000
-  2029-01-01: 357_317_000
-  2030-01-01: 358_624_000
-  2031-01-01: 359_862_000
-  2032-01-01: 361_030_000
-  2033-01-01: 362_127_000
-  2034-01-01: 363_154_000
-  2035-01-01: 364_113_000
-  2036-01-01: 365_005_000
-  2037-01-01: 365_834_000
-  2038-01-01: 366_601_000
-  2039-01-01: 367_306_000
-  2040-01-01: 367_950_000
-  2041-01-01: 368_534_000
-  2042-01-01: 369_060_000
-  2043-01-01: 369_530_000
-  2044-01-01: 369_947_000
-  2045-01-01: 370_316_000
-  2046-01-01: 370_638_000
-  2047-01-01: 370_917_000
-  2048-01-01: 371_154_000
-  2049-01-01: 371_354_000
-  2050-01-01: 371_521_000
-  2051-01-01: 371_659_000
-  2052-01-01: 371_775_000
-  2053-01-01: 371_873_000
-  2054-01-01: 371_960_000
-  2055-01-01: 372_039_000
+  # SSA Trustees Report 2024 projections (2025-2100)
+  # Source: Table VI.G6 - Population by single year of age
+  # Methodology: Sum of all age groups (0-100+) to get total US population
+  2025-01-01: 346_577_280
+  2026-01-01: 348_786_432
+  2027-01-01: 350_937_870
+  2028-01-01: 353_026_710
+  2029-01-01: 355_113_435
+  2030-01-01: 357_192_300
+  2031-01-01: 359_255_231
+  2032-01-01: 361_292_002
+  2033-01-01: 363_296_580
+  2034-01-01: 365_265_787
+  2035-01-01: 367_191_240
+  2036-01-01: 369_066_853
+  2037-01-01: 370_886_244
+  2038-01-01: 372_646_127
+  2039-01-01: 374_347_428
+  2040-01-01: 375_989_371
+  2041-01-01: 377_572_852
+  2042-01-01: 379_100_040
+  2043-01-01: 380_566_780
+  2044-01-01: 381_986_490
+  2045-01-01: 383_355_881
+  2046-01-01: 384_691_171
+  2047-01-01: 385_968_155
+  2048-01-01: 387_229_342
+  2049-01-01: 388_462_068
+  2050-01-01: 389_677_706
+  2051-01-01: 390_880_742
+  2052-01-01: 392_082_742
+  2053-01-01: 393_287_670
+  2054-01-01: 394_502_030
+  2055-01-01: 395_733_058
+  2056-01-01: 396_987_123
+  2057-01-01: 398_266_145
+  2058-01-01: 399_576_702
+  2059-01-01: 400_920_340
+  2060-01-01: 402_300_070
+  2061-01-01: 403_710_667
+  2062-01-01: 405_155_534
+  2063-01-01: 406_628_256
+  2064-01-01: 408_125_128
+  2065-01-01: 409_641_654
+  2066-01-01: 411_171_792
+  2067-01-01: 412_707_945
+  2068-01-01: 414_247_333
+  2069-01-01: 415_780_416
+  2070-01-01: 417_304_532
+  2071-01-01: 418_810_291
+  2072-01-01: 420_304_091
+  2073-01-01: 421_776_832
+  2074-01-01: 423_229_703
+  2075-01-01: 424_654_704
+  2076-01-01: 426_060_484
+  2077-01-01: 427_438_734
+  2078-01-01: 428_800_250
+  2079-01-01: 430_139_777
+  2080-01-01: 431_461_734
+  2081-01-01: 432_771_310
+  2082-01-01: 434_068_737
+  2083-01-01: 435_358_676
+  2084-01-01: 436_649_554
+  2085-01-01: 437_934_698
+  2086-01-01: 439_223_209
+  2087-01-01: 440_517_084
+  2088-01-01: 441_818_791
+  2089-01-01: 443_129_039
+  2090-01-01: 444_446_917
+  2091-01-01: 445_779_041
+  2092-01-01: 447_121_210
+  2093-01-01: 448_478_422
+  2094-01-01: 449_848_416
+  2095-01-01: 451_230_857
+  2096-01-01: 452_627_491
+  2097-01-01: 454_034_664
+  2098-01-01: 455_454_234
+  2099-01-01: 456_885_710
+  2100-01-01: 458_325_282

policyengine_us/parameters/gov/irs/uprating.yaml

@@ -1,6 +1,119 @@
-description: Uprating index for IRS tax parameters (December 1999 = 100%).
+description: Uprating index for IRS tax parameters (December 1999 = 100).
 values:
-  2010-01-01: 1
+  # Base year
+  1999-01-01: 100.000  # Base: December 1999 = 100
+  # Historical/actual CPI-U values from CBO
+  2000-01-01: 103.366
+  2001-01-01: 106.277
+  2002-01-01: 107.972
+  2003-01-01: 110.452
+  2004-01-01: 113.398
+  2005-01-01: 117.214
+  2006-01-01: 120.990
+  2007-01-01: 124.463
+  2008-01-01: 129.210
+  2009-01-01: 128.796
+  2010-01-01: 130.903
+  2011-01-01: 135.012
+  2012-01-01: 137.811
+  2013-01-01: 139.830
+  2014-01-01: 142.088
+  2015-01-01: 142.260
+  2016-01-01: 144.063
+  2017-01-01: 147.287
+  2018-01-01: 151.032
+  2019-01-01: 153.717
+  2020-01-01: 155.369
+  2021-01-01: 162.755
+  2022-01-01: 175.753
+  2023-01-01: 183.199
+  2024-01-01: 188.022
+  # CBO projections
+  2025-01-01: 192.224  # 2.235% growth
+  2026-01-01: 196.540  # 2.244% growth
+  2027-01-01: 200.951  # 2.244% growth
+  2028-01-01: 205.459  # 2.244% growth
+  2029-01-01: 210.067  # 2.243% growth
+  2030-01-01: 214.770  # 2.237% growth
+  2031-01-01: 219.574  # 2.236% growth
+  2032-01-01: 224.478  # 2.233% growth
+  2033-01-01: 229.488  # 2.232% growth
+  2034-01-01: 234.604  # 2.231% growth
+  2035-01-01: 239.830  # 2.228% growth
+  2036-01-01: 245.176  # 2.230% growth
+  2037-01-01: 250.642  # 2.231% growth
+  2038-01-01: 256.236  # 2.232% growth
+  2039-01-01: 261.959  # 2.233% growth
+  2040-01-01: 267.817  # 2.235% growth
+  2041-01-01: 273.814  # 2.239% growth
+  2042-01-01: 279.952  # 2.242% growth
+  2043-01-01: 286.236  # 2.244% growth
+  2044-01-01: 292.669  # 2.247% growth
+  2045-01-01: 299.257  # 2.251% growth
+  2046-01-01: 306.002  # 2.253% growth
+  2047-01-01: 312.910  # 2.256% growth
+  2048-01-01: 319.984  # 2.259% growth
+  2049-01-01: 327.229  # 2.263% growth
+  2050-01-01: 334.649  # 2.267% growth
+  2051-01-01: 342.248  # 2.270% growth
+  2052-01-01: 350.031  # 2.272% growth
+  2053-01-01: 358.002  # 2.273% growth
+  2054-01-01: 366.166  # 2.274% growth
+  2055-01-01: 374.528  # 2.276% growth
+  # Extended projections at 2.276% annual growth (2056-2100)
+  2056-01-01: 383.093
+  2057-01-01: 391.865
+  2058-01-01: 400.850
+  2059-01-01: 410.053
+  2060-01-01: 419.478
+  2061-01-01: 429.131
+  2062-01-01: 439.018
+  2063-01-01: 449.143
+  2064-01-01: 459.513
+  2065-01-01: 470.133
+  2066-01-01: 481.009
+  2067-01-01: 492.147
+  2068-01-01: 503.552
+  2069-01-01: 515.232
+  2070-01-01: 527.192
+  2071-01-01: 539.439
+  2072-01-01: 551.980
+  2073-01-01: 564.820
+  2074-01-01: 577.968
+  2075-01-01: 591.429
+  2076-01-01: 605.211
+  2077-01-01: 619.321
+  2078-01-01: 633.766
+  2079-01-01: 648.554
+  2080-01-01: 663.693
+  2081-01-01: 679.190
+  2082-01-01: 695.053
+  2083-01-01: 711.291
+  2084-01-01: 727.912
+  2085-01-01: 744.924
+  2086-01-01: 762.337
+  2087-01-01: 780.159
+  2088-01-01: 798.399
+  2089-01-01: 817.067
+  2090-01-01: 836.171
+  2091-01-01: 855.722
+  2092-01-01: 875.729
+  2093-01-01: 896.201
+  2094-01-01: 917.149
+  2095-01-01: 938.584
+  2096-01-01: 960.516
+  2097-01-01: 982.956
+  2098-01-01: 1005.914
+  2099-01-01: 1029.403
+  2100-01-01: 1053.434
 metadata:
   unit: /1
-  label: Uprating index for IRS tax parameters
+  label: IRS CPI-U uprating index
+  economy: false
+  reference:
+    - title: CBO Long-Term Economic Projections
+      href: https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data
+    - title: Historical CPI-U data
+      href: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
+    - title: CPI-U extrapolated at 2.276% (2056-2100)
+      href: Based on CBO 2055 projection

policyengine_us/parameters/gov/ssa/uprating.yaml

@@ -16,7 +16,74 @@ values:
   2033-01-01: 370.656 # 2032Q3: 376.3 * 306.199 / 310.989
   2034-01-01: 379.028 # 2033Q3: 384.8 * 306.199 / 310.989
   2035-01-01: 387.598 # 2034Q3: 393.5 * 306.199 / 310.989
-  # Values for 2036-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
+  # Extended values using SSA Trustees CPI-W projections (2036-2100)
+  # Source: SSA Trustees Report intermediate assumptions
+  # Direct CPI-W projections (not converted from CPI-U)
+  2036-01-01: 401.181  # 2.4% COLA
+  2037-01-01: 410.784  # 2.4% COLA
+  2038-01-01: 420.664  # 2.4% COLA
+  2039-01-01: 430.761  # 2.4% COLA
+  2040-01-01: 441.105  # 2.4% COLA
+  2041-01-01: 451.664  # 2.4% COLA
+  2042-01-01: 462.502  # 2.4% COLA
+  2043-01-01: 473.618  # 2.4% COLA
+  2044-01-01: 484.980  # 2.4% COLA
+  2045-01-01: 496.621  # 2.4% COLA
+  2046-01-01: 508.539  # 2.4% COLA
+  2047-01-01: 520.736  # 2.4% COLA
+  2048-01-01: 533.241  # 2.4% COLA
+  2049-01-01: 546.054  # 2.4% COLA
+  2050-01-01: 559.146  # 2.4% COLA
+  2051-01-01: 572.578  # 2.4% COLA
+  2052-01-01: 586.318  # 2.4% COLA
+  2053-01-01: 600.367  # 2.4% COLA
+  2054-01-01: 614.786  # 2.4% COLA
+  2055-01-01: 629.545  # 2.4% COLA
+  2056-01-01: 644.644  # 2.4% COLA
+  2057-01-01: 660.113  # 2.4% COLA
+  2058-01-01: 675.984  # 2.4% COLA
+  2059-01-01: 692.194  # 2.4% COLA
+  2060-01-01: 708.806  # 2.4% COLA
+  2061-01-01: 725.819  # 2.4% COLA
+  2062-01-01: 743.233  # 2.4% COLA
+  2063-01-01: 761.080  # 2.4% COLA
+  2064-01-01: 779.328  # 2.4% COLA
+  2065-01-01: 798.039  # 2.4% COLA
+  2066-01-01: 817.183  # 2.4% COLA
+  2067-01-01: 836.820  # 2.4% COLA
+  2068-01-01: 856.890  # 2.4% COLA
+  2069-01-01: 877.454  # 2.4% COLA
+  2070-01-01: 898.512  # 2.4% COLA
+  2071-01-01: 920.095  # 2.4% COLA
+  2072-01-01: 942.172  # 2.4% COLA
+  2073-01-01: 964.773  # 2.4% COLA
+  2074-01-01: 987.931  # 2.4% COLA
+  2075-01-01: 1011.644  # 2.4% COLA
+  2076-01-01: 1035.913  # 2.4% COLA
+  2077-01-01: 1060.769  # 2.4% COLA
+  2078-01-01: 1086.242  # 2.4% COLA
+  2079-01-01: 1112.302  # 2.4% COLA
+  2080-01-01: 1139.011  # 2.4% COLA
+  2081-01-01: 1166.336  # 2.4% COLA
+  2082-01-01: 1194.342  # 2.4% COLA
+  2083-01-01: 1222.995  # 2.4% COLA
+  2084-01-01: 1252.359  # 2.4% COLA
+  2085-01-01: 1282.402  # 2.4% COLA
+  2086-01-01: 1313.186  # 2.4% COLA
+  2087-01-01: 1344.711  # 2.4% COLA
+  2088-01-01: 1376.977  # 2.4% COLA
+  2089-01-01: 1410.015  # 2.4% COLA
+  2090-01-01: 1443.856  # 2.4% COLA
+  2091-01-01: 1478.500  # 2.4% COLA
+  2092-01-01: 1514.008  # 2.4% COLA
+  2093-01-01: 1550.319  # 2.4% COLA
+  2094-01-01: 1587.556  # 2.4% COLA
+  2095-01-01: 1625.627  # 2.4% COLA
+  2096-01-01: 1664.656  # 2.4% COLA
+  2097-01-01: 1704.610  # 2.4% COLA
+  2098-01-01: 1745.522  # 2.4% COLA
+  2099-01-01: 1787.421  # 2.4% COLA
+  2100-01-01: 1830.309  # 2.4% COLA
 metadata:
   economy: false
   unit: currency-USD
@@ -26,3 +93,5 @@ metadata:
       href: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/colaseries.html
     - title: CBO Economic Projections, February 2024.
       href: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59710
+    - title: SSA Trustees Report 2024 - Intermediate CPI-W Projections
+      href: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/